Warsh's First Big Test: Fed Hike Nearly Fully Priced Ahead of 11:30 PM IST Call
The US Federal Reserve announces its policy decision tonight at 11:30 PM IST. Futures pricing shows about 90% odds of a 25 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and the updated dot plot follow.
Nictick #2026-0052268 characters
Nictick — educational context
Rates have held at 3.50%-3.75% all year. Hot August inflation data, strong payrolls and crude above $100 shifted expectations sharply. With the hike largely priced, the tone of guidance and the projected rate path are what equities, the dollar, gold and crypto are watching.