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The US added only 29,000 jobs in September against expectations near 90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3%, the weakest since 2021. Odds of an October Fed hike dropped to roughly 16%, from 64% a week ago. Treasury yields and the dollar eased.
US long bonds sold off again. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.43%, its highest since 2004, while the 10-year held above 5.1%, a level last seen in 2007. A larger Treasury buyback failed to steady demand, and markets now price roughly a 70% chance of another Fed hike in October.
Iran has signalled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its naval blockade. Brent slipped under $100. Nifty opened near 23,380 after Tuesday's fall, Bitcoin held close to an eight-month high around $86,800, and spot gold eased to roughly $4,340 an ounce.
The US raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled more. Japan pushed to a 31-year high. Crude held above $100 after a pipeline scare, gold closed its first higher week in four, and Indian benchmarks logged a sixth straight weekly fall. Every asset moved off one trigger.
The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since July 2023. The vote was unanimous. Policymakers flagged still-elevated inflation and said the move supports a quicker return to the 2% goal.
The US Federal Reserve announces its policy decision tonight at 11:30 PM IST. Futures pricing shows about 90% odds of a 25 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and the updated dot plot follow.
Brent climbed about 2.75% to near $107.48 after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline and Oman-hosted talks were postponed. Traders priced roughly 86% odds of a US rate hike on Wednesday. Gold eased near $4,340 and bitcoin near $76,700. Indian exchanges were closed for Ganesh Chaturthi.
Nifty opened below 23,300 and Sensex shed around 600 points as Brent held above $107 and a hotter US producer price print firmed up rate-hike expectations. US yields sat at multi-year highs, the dollar firmed, gold stayed capped and crypto majors slipped. Realty and rate-sensitives led the fall.
Brent held above $98 at a six-week high as Hormuz shipping risk stayed unresolved. The energy impulse pushed rate-cut expectations further out. Indian equities slipped under 76,000 to a six-week low, gold eased near $4,444, bitcoin held below $79,000 and the rupee stayed soft.
The US added 162,000 jobs in August against a consensus of 55,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. The beat lands a day after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with a pause, pushing September hike odds back toward even.
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend, the first action in a month. Tehran responded with attacks on American allies in the region. Brent for November delivery climbed past $90, up over 3%. WTI moved above $86.
The US Treasury will at least double long-dated bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation from September 9. Yields fell on the news, then rebounded Thursday. The dollar weakened. Gold reached about $4,530, Bitcoin rose near 11 percent, Nifty opened near 24,250.
