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US and Iranian negotiators in New York are weighing a phased exit from the seven-month war. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade. Neither side wants to move first, and a senior Iranian official called the odds of success extremely low.
Iran has signalled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its naval blockade. Brent slipped under $100. Nifty opened near 23,380 after Tuesday's fall, Bitcoin held close to an eight-month high around $86,800, and spot gold eased to roughly $4,340 an ounce.
Brent settled at $100.34 on Monday, its fourth straight decline, after Trump said he was probably open to meeting Iran's President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly. US 10-year yields eased to 4.95% and the Nasdaq closed at a record. Nifty opened Tuesday near 23,454, with IT lagging.
Brent crude fell about 1.8% to near $102 on Monday, a fourth straight losing session, as oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached a six-month high. Gold eased 0.6% to around $4,355 an ounce, while bitcoin held above $81,000 as US-China trade talks lifted risk appetite.
The US raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled more. Japan pushed to a 31-year high. Crude held above $100 after a pipeline scare, gold closed its first higher week in four, and Indian benchmarks logged a sixth straight weekly fall. Every asset moved off one trigger.
The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since July 2023. The vote was unanimous. Policymakers flagged still-elevated inflation and said the move supports a quicker return to the 2% goal.
The US Federal Reserve announces its policy decision tonight at 11:30 PM IST. Futures pricing shows about 90% odds of a 25 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and the updated dot plot follow.
Saudi Arabia has shut its East-West crude pipeline after drone strikes damaged pumping stations. The route had been carrying the bulk of kingdom exports while the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked. Brent has traded above the $100 mark. Yanbu storage is reported adequate for only days.
Brent climbed about 2.75% to near $107.48 after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline and Oman-hosted talks were postponed. Traders priced roughly 86% odds of a US rate hike on Wednesday. Gold eased near $4,340 and bitcoin near $76,700. Indian exchanges were closed for Ganesh Chaturthi.
US August CPI held at 3.4% year-on-year, but core rose 0.3% against a 0.2% estimate. Bitcoin dipped near $76,000 on the print, then recovered above $79,000. Fed hike odds for the September 16 meeting jumped to 85-86%. The 30-year Treasury yield touched its highest since June 2004 before settling at 5.309%.
Nifty opened below 23,300 and Sensex shed around 600 points as Brent held above $107 and a hotter US producer price print firmed up rate-hike expectations. US yields sat at multi-year highs, the dollar firmed, gold stayed capped and crypto majors slipped. Realty and rate-sensitives led the fall.
Brent has crossed $100 a barrel, its first break above that level since July, after fresh US-Iran escalation near the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street closed lower, the US 10-year sits near 4.84%, the rupee opened past 95, and gold and bitcoin firmed while equities stayed defensive.
