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War, rate decision surprise, market crash, circuit breaker, major geopolitical escalation, unexpected policy reversal.
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Iran’s First Vice President said on 19 October that Tehran has no choice but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $109.55, near a five-month high. Indian markets, shut on 20 October for Dussehra, reopen on 21 October with this yet to be priced in.
US CPI rose 3.7% in September, above the 3.6% forecast, reviving Fed rate hike bets. Kospi fell over 8% intraday and the Nikkei nearly 5%, yet Sensex and Nifty opened higher on Thursday, led by IT stocks. The rupee firmed for a third straight session on fresh RBI curbs on dollar demand.
Korea’s first sell-side curb in two months hit Tuesday as foreigners dumped ₩948.8 billion of stock on China’s CXMT DRAM plans. Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000. The rupee held firm on RBI curbs, while Russian diesel supply hopes cooled Brent despite Gulf strike risk.
Brent crude settled at $104.28 a barrel, up 4%, and WTI at $91.49 after ten tankers were struck near the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, a record. Hurricane Isaias forced producers to shut about 500,000 bpd, roughly a quarter of US Gulf of Mexico output.
Indian equities head into Monday's session after Nifty's eighth straight weekly fall, its longest losing run since 2001. Since Thursday's close, a weak US jobs print cut October Fed hike odds, four tankers were hit near Hormuz and OPEC+ held November targets. RBI's MPC meets from Monday.
The US added only 29,000 jobs in September against expectations near 90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3%, the weakest since 2021. Odds of an October Fed hike dropped to roughly 16%, from 64% a week ago. Treasury yields and the dollar eased.
Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped toward $106, US yields rose and gold broke below $4,200 for the first time since August 5. Silver fell over 4%. Sensex and Nifty slid more than 1% in early trade. Bitcoin stayed near $84,000.
US and Iranian negotiators in New York are weighing a phased exit from the seven-month war. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade. Neither side wants to move first, and a senior Iranian official called the odds of success extremely low.
Iran has signalled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its naval blockade. Brent slipped under $100. Nifty opened near 23,380 after Tuesday's fall, Bitcoin held close to an eight-month high around $86,800, and spot gold eased to roughly $4,340 an ounce.
Brent settled at $100.34 on Monday, its fourth straight decline, after Trump said he was probably open to meeting Iran's President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly. US 10-year yields eased to 4.95% and the Nasdaq closed at a record. Nifty opened Tuesday near 23,454, with IT lagging.
Brent crude fell about 1.8% to near $102 on Monday, a fourth straight losing session, as oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached a six-month high. Gold eased 0.6% to around $4,355 an ounce, while bitcoin held above $81,000 as US-China trade talks lifted risk appetite.
The US raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled more. Japan pushed to a 31-year high. Crude held above $100 after a pipeline scare, gold closed its first higher week in four, and Indian benchmarks logged a sixth straight weekly fall. Every asset moved off one trigger.
