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Iran’s First Vice President said on 19 October that Tehran has no choice but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $109.55, near a five-month high. Indian markets, shut on 20 October for Dussehra, reopen on 21 October with this yet to be priced in.
Brent crude settled at $104.28 a barrel, up 4%, and WTI at $91.49 after ten tankers were struck near the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, a record. Hurricane Isaias forced producers to shut about 500,000 bpd, roughly a quarter of US Gulf of Mexico output.
Brent settled at $100.34 on Monday, its fourth straight decline, after Trump said he was probably open to meeting Iran's President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly. US 10-year yields eased to 4.95% and the Nasdaq closed at a record. Nifty opened Tuesday near 23,454, with IT lagging.
Brent crude fell about 1.8% to near $102 on Monday, a fourth straight losing session, as oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached a six-month high. Gold eased 0.6% to around $4,355 an ounce, while bitcoin held above $81,000 as US-China trade talks lifted risk appetite.
The 60-day US-Iran arrangement signed in June reaches nominal expiry today with talks deadlocked and the Strait of Hormuz still shut. Brent holds near $89 after a 5% weekly gain. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire over the weekend. Crude-linked sectors and energy importers stay in focus.
Brent crude held above $88 a barrel after gaining more than 5% last week, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and Washington signalling further measures on Iran. The IEA forecast the widest global supply deficit in five years. India imports roughly 85% of its crude.
Spot gold rose 2.4% Friday to $4,341.69, its highest since 17 June, after US July payrolls fell 23,000 against forecasts of an 80,000 gain. The move ended a six-week range near the 4074-4112 zone. Weekly gain exceeded 7%, the largest since January.
Gold moved back above $4,050 Monday after the US said peace talks with Iran will resume, pulling oil lower. Bitcoin traded near $63,700, with recent rallies stalling near $65,500. Markets are pricing roughly 65% odds of a September Fed rate hike ahead of Aug 12 US inflation data.
WTI crude surged more than 7 percent near $85 after the US and Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq following attacks on Saudi energy facilities, while Iran targeted US forces in Jordan. Gold rose around 0.7 percent near $4,056 on safe haven demand and dollar weakness.
Gold has broken below $4,000 per ounce once in 2026, on June 24-26. Spot touched near $3,960, the first trade under that level since November 2025 and about 29% below January's record near $5,597. A firmer dollar and rate expectations accompanied the move before price steadied around $4,000.
Spot gold falls 2.1% to $4,043 and silver slides 3.8% to $57.44 in a broad precious metals decline. Brent crude touches $100 a barrel for the first time since late May, ten-year US yields hit a one-year high and September Fed hike odds climb to 83% from 68%, per CME FedWatch. Dollar firms 0.3%.
