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The US added only 29,000 jobs in September against expectations near 90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3%, the weakest since 2021. Odds of an October Fed hike dropped to roughly 16%, from 64% a week ago. Treasury yields and the dollar eased.
Iran has signalled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its naval blockade. Brent slipped under $100. Nifty opened near 23,380 after Tuesday's fall, Bitcoin held close to an eight-month high around $86,800, and spot gold eased to roughly $4,340 an ounce.
The US raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled more. Japan pushed to a 31-year high. Crude held above $100 after a pipeline scare, gold closed its first higher week in four, and Indian benchmarks logged a sixth straight weekly fall. Every asset moved off one trigger.
The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since July 2023. The vote was unanimous. Policymakers flagged still-elevated inflation and said the move supports a quicker return to the 2% goal.
Nifty opened below 23,300 and Sensex shed around 600 points as Brent held above $107 and a hotter US producer price print firmed up rate-hike expectations. US yields sat at multi-year highs, the dollar firmed, gold stayed capped and crypto majors slipped. Realty and rate-sensitives led the fall.
Brent held above $98 at a six-week high as Hormuz shipping risk stayed unresolved. The energy impulse pushed rate-cut expectations further out. Indian equities slipped under 76,000 to a six-week low, gold eased near $4,444, bitcoin held below $79,000 and the rupee stayed soft.
The US added 162,000 jobs in August against a consensus of 55,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. The beat lands a day after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with a pause, pushing September hike odds back toward even.
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend, the first action in a month. Tehran responded with attacks on American allies in the region. Brent for November delivery climbed past $90, up over 3%. WTI moved above $86.
The US Treasury will at least double long-dated bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation from September 9. Yields fell on the news, then rebounded Thursday. The dollar weakened. Gold reached about $4,530, Bitcoin rose near 11 percent, Nifty opened near 24,250.
US nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against forecasts near 80,000, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000. Unemployment eased to 4.1% on lower participation. Wage growth slowed to 3.2%. The dollar weakened and Bitcoin traded near $65,300.
